17 replies to this topic

[capi]

Get out and vote!

So Canadians (or anyone else), what do you think will happen tonight?

I don't imagine many outside of Canada are paying much attention but in March the Conservative government was found to be in contempt of parliament which led to a no confidence motion and yet another federal election.  We're back at the polls today for the 4th time in 7 years.  It looked like it was going to be more of the same until the NDP made an unexpected surge in the last 2 weeks of the campaign and now the results tonight could be very interesting.

[capi]

Yeah, I've been wondering if Jack's surge will translate to votes too.  On the bright side, he  had significant increases in seats in the 3 elections he has been leader so it just might happen.  Still it's hard to imagine he'd have enough to move that far ahead.  Then again, Bob Rae was a huge surprise winner way back when.  I really hope some of those NDP seats are won at the expense of the Conservatives.

I was worried that Harper would get his majority.  I do hope he hasn't persuaded any Liberals to switch in fear of an NDP government.  I'm not going to be happy with another Conservative minority either.  It's ridiculous if they get to govern again after 3 elections in which the majority of Canadians vote against them.  Aaargh!  And the other parties have to know that Canadians won't want any part of another election any time soon.

I'm hoping for a surprise that ends with Harper out of the PMO and stepping down as Conservative leader.

Could be a late night waiting for the B.C. results.



* I'd also love to see Elizabeth May win a seat!

[pebbles]

I'm really excited too. This has been a VERY different election to the norm. I'm also impressed that they have been talking about issues and policies more than just mud-slinging this time around.  

I'm kind of hoping too that the greens get some kind of start, that would be a good change to see.

Jack Layton is really coming on strong this time, it will be very interesting to stay up and watch the results!!

[OrangeCrush76]

It would be nice to see the NDP get more seats, as well as the Green Party have representation as well. As long as Harper doesn't get a majority. But then again, another minority government may mean another election down the road, and I'm guessing us Canadians don't want to do this again a year or two from now.

[pebbles]

I think if Harper got another minority, his party might kick him to the curb anyway.

[capi]

Sheesh, 10 min after polls closed in Ontario, Global has already projected the outcome.

Guess I can't give any details.

A few minutes more and they have declared the outcome.

[pebbles]

I never like Global's coverage anyway. All the pundits have been saying what a different and hard to predict this election is, so when ridings in Ontario are reporting a candidate "leads" by 11 votes, you gotta think Global is declaring based on polling data.

[capi]

CTV has declared too.

[capi]

It's too damn close.

[pebbles]

Well, they got their majority.

But the rest - wow! The liberals and the bloc are just decimated!  I missed iggy's speech, I'll have to read up on it now. The libs will have to rebuild from even less than they did the last time they had to regroup.

I'm impressed with Jack Layton so far, I hope he keeps it up when he's really on the job. I remember when they called him a yappy dog during a debate a few times ago, seems he's learned.

I'm glad Elizabeth May got her seat. (I guess that means she gets to come to the debate next time??)

[capi]

Congratulations to Layton and May.

Fucking Conservative majority.  

I was so disheartened I couldn't even stay up to watch his victory speech.  Saw Ignatieff speak then off to bed.  He spoke well and got in a little dig at Harper, he'll "pretend to govern from the centre."  I'll have to look for Jack's speech somewhere but I don't think I can stand to see Harper gloat.

I'm happy for Jack and the NDP to do so well.  I liked Jack and Olivia as municipal politicians too but I am concerned about the vote splitting of the left.  These results just show how divided we are when first and second place are the far right and the far left, with distant third place going to the left centrists.  

I hate that 60% voted against the Conservatives and yet we are stuck with them for 4 years with a majority.  Why didn't it matter that they were found in contempt of parliament, that they are the most controlling, secretive government ever?  Do we really want to be kept in the dark and just  hope that papa Harper will take care of everything?  Bev Oda gets re-elected after her shenanigans with secretly altering documents and lying to Parlliament about it?  Does nothing stick to them?

Unite the left!

[wagtail]

capi, on 03 May 2011 - 03:49 AM, said:

Unite the left!

heh, good luck with that!  

I have followed the last couple of Canadian elections since I've been trying to figure out why Australian politics is the way it is - it helps to compare it to other similar countries.  Canada's system is kind of bizarre to me - I don't understand it at all.  It seems much more fluid than ours in terms of all of the parties seemingly being less 'entrenched' which should means less 'rusted on' voters on both the left and the right, but then, perversely, change seems to be hard to come by.  I hope that Harper gets himself into a bind similar John Howard when he got control of the Senate....I know your senate is very different - but Harper has more or less stacked the senate hasn't he??  Anyhow, I hope that he uses the majority to show even more of his true colours and get himself resolutely defeated next time.  

On a side note, I was talking about asylum seekers with a friend the other day and we got to talking about what we would be looking for if we were 'nation shopping' [that's what people say disparagingly about asylum seekers arriving by boat over here - 'nation shopping' as if they are choosing which country with give them the best opportunity, bleh it's a pretty horrible term and we were saying how arrogant it is that people would think Australia presents as such a great option].  Anyway, Canada's first past the post system would remove it as a choice for me if I was 'nation shopping'...it would just drive me bonkers to get a result like this.  For me New Zealand has the best electoral model with proportional representation, but I will settle for Australia's preferential voting - though I would prefer to have the model that I think is being voted on in the UK - that is optional preferential voting.

[trix]

wagtail, on 03 May 2011 - 09:02 PM, said:

For me New Zealand has the best electoral model with proportional representation, but I will settle for Australia's preferential voting - though I would prefer to have the model that I think is being voted on in the UK - that is optional preferential voting.

Well, some of the quirks of our system are coming to the fore recently.  The MP who led the far right party ACT, Rodney Hide, has been ousted as party leader by the former leader of the Center right party National, Don Brash, who is no longer an MP.  Moreover, the ACT party did not meet the 5% threshold, but has 5 members of parliament because Hide won his constituency.  So despite the fact there would be no ACT presence in parliament without Hide, the unelected Don Brash is calling the shots as to  whether Hide keeps his ministerial portfolios.   I hope this chaos means that voters won't give them the time of day come our November election, but it does raise some issues around  the current implementation of MMP.

[musicbrain_5]

Really late to this topic, but I'm not happy with the Conservative majority.  I especially don't like Harper's policies regarding cutbacks to arts programs in schools across the country - as somebody who wants to be a music teacher, that's unsettling to me.  It may be harder for me to find a job when I get out of schools.  Ironically, though, Harper is a pretty competent musician having been trained on the piano, and he's a gigantic Beatles fan.

Now I'm more concerned with the upcoming elections in Ontario, in October.

[wagtail]

trix, on 04 May 2011 - 04:17 PM, said:

Well, some of the quirks of our system are coming to the fore recently.  The MP who led the far right party ACT, Rodney Hide, has been ousted as party leader by the former leader of the Center right party National, Don Brash, who is no longer an MP.  Moreover, the ACT party did not meet the 5% threshold, but has 5 members of parliament because Hide won his constituency.  So despite the fact there would be no ACT presence in parliament without Hide, the unelected Don Brash is calling the shots as to  whether Hide keeps his ministerial portfolios.   I hope this chaos means that voters won't give them the time of day come our November election, but it does raise some issues around  the current implementation of MMP.

Interesting - I think the NZ system is like what they have in Tasmanian state elections - I guess the same situation could happen in Tassie too.  Regardless, I reckon all the voting systems have delivered their fair share of dramas in recent years, that doesn't worry me so much.  I just can't imagine such an unrepresentative result as what the Canadians have ended up with under any other system but first past the post.  FPTP can only really work within a really rigid two-party structure, and why would anyone want such a rigid two-party structure? I don't think there is any real competition for ideas in that system.  I definitely think Australia's system could be improved on..and some type of proportional representation is what I'd like to see.  Of course that means more minority governments and informal coalitions and that would change the way we are governed quite substantially, but that would definitely be a good thing as far as I'm concerned.  More than anything, I'd like to see the media stop treating it like it's a game of two sides and have to report on the nuance and the negotiations.

[pebbles]

wagtail, on 21 May 2011 - 09:29 PM, said:

More than anything, I'd like to see the media stop treating it like it's a game of two sides and have to report on the nuance and the negotiations.

That would require more work - on both the part of the reporters and the audience, which is part of why we got to these problems in the first place, imo. In Canada it's basically two-party with some distractors. But now the second party has changed, the players are new, so it's interesting again. I hope the media don't drop the ball.

[wagtail]

pebbles, on 23 May 2011 - 08:42 PM, said:

In Canada it's basically two-party with some distractors. But now the second party has changed, the players are new, so it's interesting again.

Historically that's how it's been here as well...which is why I find the way you guys changed [the second party, I mean] so intriguing - I can't imagine that kind of shift here.

Our system is unrepresentative because it basically defers to the two-party structure in that although the third party here [the Greens] got about 14% of the vote nationally, they only have one seat in the House of Representatives.  Labor received about 38% of the vote and they got 72 seats - go figure!   Proportional representation would address that disparity.  Regardless the Aussie situation is more representative than the Canadian experience because preferential voting allows the Greens voters to give their second preference to Labor [that's how Labor got elected on 38% of the vote].  

Two party politics seems to me a battle for the middle-ground that is waged at the extremes, where all common ground is ignored in favour of hyperbole and misrepresentation - that's why I favour PR - that's all I'm really trying to say. I agree about journalists and audience being equally to blame, but I still think a genuine multi-party structure would open the discussion more, but maybe I'm being naive and idealistic to assume anything would change.